Treasury Direct: fixed rate interest rises again, after losing 12% in all terms on Tuesday

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The markets operate, on the morning of this Wednesday (17), awaiting the minutes of the last meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve (Fed, American central bank). The expectation is that the monetary authority will offer more indications on the trajectory of interest rates in the country, which should have a direct impact on the local interest curve.

Also noteworthy was the release of retail sales in the United States in July, which remained stable in the monthly comparison. The Refinitiv consensus projected a 0.1% increase from June.

On a day of more signals about monetary policy, yields offered by American bonds (treasuries) advanced in most maturities, with a rise of more than 2% for maturities from two years, around 9:55 am (Brasilia time) .

Wednesday is also the presentation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the euro zone, which rose 0.6% in the second quarter in the quarterly comparison and 3.9% compared to the months between April and June 2021, according to a review. released today by Eurostat, the statistics agency of the European Union (EU).

The result was below the expectation of analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal, who had expected a rise of 0.7%.

Inflation numbers are highlighted in the local scene, with the 0.69% decline in the General Price Index (IGP-10) in August, above the Refinitiv consensus that expected a 0.60% drop.

In the Treasury Direct, the rates offered by public securities advance up to 21 basis points (0.21 percentage point) this morning. Fixed rate securities are the ones that show the highest increases, with interest reaching 12.07% per year, at 9:20 am – resuming the 12% level that had been lost the day before (16) when all fixed-rate maturities ended the day below this level .

The return of 12.07% per year is offered by the 2033 Prefixed Treasury, with a half-yearly coupon. A day earlier, the security delivered a rate of 11.89% per year.

Among inflation-linked bonds, the highest increase is registered by the Treasury IPCA+2032, with semiannual interest. At 9:20 am, the paper offered a real interest rate of 5.80% per year, against 5.68% per year seen the day before (16).

Check the prices and rates of all public securities available for purchase at the Treasury Direct this Wednesday morning (17):

Source: Direct Treasure

Commodities and inflation in the UK

On the external scene, the market follows the slight decline registered in the prices of oil futures contracts. At around 9:50 am ET, Brent was down 0.50% to $91.88, while WTI was down 0.13% to $86.42.

Financial agents also monitor inflation figures from the UK. According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the consumer price index (CPI) rose 10.1% in July compared to 9.4% in June. Experts polled by The Wall Street Journal predicted a rise of 9.8%.

That was the highest rate of inflation in more than four decades and the fastest rise in prices recorded in one of the rich G-7 countries since the current inflationary pressure began in early 2021.

From the previous month, prices rose 0.6%, above analysts’ forecast of 0.4%. The core CPI increased 6.2% in the comparison, while the expectation was for a rise of 6.0%.

Elections and ICMS ceiling

In his inaugural speech, Minister Alexandre de Moraes, the new president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), defended yesterday (16) that the Electoral Justice acts with transparency and that it honors its historic vocation of realizing democracy.

Regarding electronic voting machines, the president said that the system will always be improved, a fact that guarantees the release of the result on the same day of voting.

“Brazilians confidently typed their vote, awaiting the counting, the proclamation of the result on the same day for the security, tranquility and pride of our voters,” he said.

Moraes will serve a two-year term and succeed Minister Edson Fachin. The new vice president is Minister Ricardo Lewandowski.

Also on the political scene, the economic team may review the ceiling of the Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS), in case the states prove a loss of revenue, said yesterday (16) Paulo Guedes, Minister of Economy.

He participated in a conciliation hearing between states and the Union, promoted by Minister Gilmar Mendes, rapporteur of the case at the Federal Supreme Court (STF).

The participation of Paulo Guedes was not foreseen in the official agenda. During the speech, the minister said that the Federation units continue with a full cash and that any loss of revenue with the fixing of the ICMS ceiling could result in a review of the proposal.

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