Clues for the decisive date. The managers supported the president in the first round and the workers more the far-right leader
BEATRIZ JUDGE Correspondent. Paris Saturday, 23 April 2022, 00:12
The analysis of the results of the first round reveals a very different profile of the voter for Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, according to a survey by Ipsos and Sopra Steria for France TV and Radio France. While the directors and retirees voted for the outgoing president, the workers and employees put the far-right ballot in the ballot box. Key clues ahead of the second round of the French presidential elections, which will be decided tomorrow.
The survey also revealed that the far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who was eliminated after finishing third in the elections, was preferred by young people between 18 and 24 years old (31%), followed by the two candidates who continue in the struggle, Le Pen (26%) and Macron (20%). The leader of La République en marche (The Republic on the March) has collected more votes among French people over 60 years of age, although in the rest of the age categories, from 18 to 59 years of age, Marine Le Pen has more support.
In general, Macron voters are high-income and highly educated, while Le Pen supporters are identified as low-income and less educated. The former also achieved the support of managers (35% compared to 12% for Le Pen) and retirees (38%-17%), and, to a lesser extent, intermediate positions (28%-24%). . Instead, Le Pen seduces more employees (36% compared to 17% of the outgoing president) and workers (36%-17%), according to the Ipsos survey.
Aware of the pull she has between the workers and the popular classes, the candidate for the Rassemblement national (National Group) has focused her electoral campaign on the loss of purchasing power, the issue that most worries the French in these elections, instead of talking of immigration and citizen security, which are usually two of the favorite topics of the extreme right.
On this occasion, Le Pen preferred to leave the most controversial issues to the ultra candidate Éric Zemmour, who had more radical positions than her. Zemmour has acted as a lightning rod for criticism. This has served him in the strategy to “demonize” the image of his party. His goal: to appear less extremist and seduce a good part of the electorate to achieve victory.
Depending on the level of education, there are also differences between the voters of Macron and Le Pen. French people with a university education, either a diploma (31% vs. 23%) or a bachelor’s degree (33%-13%) vote more for the president. His rival, however, is preferred among those who have basic education (35%–23%) and those who have only achieved high school (27-26%).
And, of course, there is also income, which influences the direction of the vote, according to the poll. Those voters with a net monthly salary of less than 1,250 euros leaned towards Le Pen (31%-14%), while in those households in which more than 3,000 euros net per month (35%-19%) the ballot was mostly for Macron.
Catholics voted more for this candidate (32%) than for Le Pen (27%), while voters who said they profess other religions did so during the first round more in favor of Mélenchon (36%); Macron was second (22%) and Le Pen (13%) third. The vote of voters who define themselves as “no religion” was also carried by Mélenchon (30%), followed by Macron (25%) and Le Pen (21%).
On the hunt for the undecided
Almost three out of ten French people of voting age (26%) abstained in the first round. Almost half of the voters between the ages of 18 and 24 (42%) and those between the ages of 25 and 34 (46%) did not go to the polls, while in the rest of the age categories abstentionism ranged between 12% of the French from 60 to 69 years old and 23% who are over 70.
Macron takes the ballot of the majority of voters who charge 3,000 euros
One worker in three (33%) also did not cast their ballot in the first round, compared to 26% of managers and 27% of intermediate professionals and employees, according to the Ipsos and Sopra Steria survey. The two candidates have tried these days to mobilize the abstentionists and the undecided.
And each with their own cover letter. Le Pen as the people’s candidate against “the caste”, in an attempt to attract the popular classes, the “yellow vests” and the voters of the leftist Mélenchon. “If the people vote, the people win”, she has repeated until the last moment. Macron, who between the two rounds has given a more ecological and social turn to his program to also attract the left, recalls that “voting is a duty. Many have fought for us to have that right. 1,500 or 2,000 kilometers from here (in Ukraine) democracy is bombed.
Closure of a campaign in which “nothing is decided”
The candidates closed the presidential campaign yesterday by urging the French to go to the polls. “Nothing is decided,” Macron warned at his last campaign rally in Figeac, in the south of France. “April 24 will be a referendum for or against Europe; for or against a secular republic, united and indivisible; for an economically strong France; and for or against fidelity to our values, to our History and to what we really are». The centrist candidate accused Le Pen, daughter of the historical leader of the extreme right Jean-Marie Le Pen, of being “the candidate of a clan.” Yesterday, she compressed everything that is at stake at the polls with a basic “or Macron or France?”