Income Tax Reform, End of Balance and Data Season in China and the US: What to Watch This Week

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The plenary of the Chamber of Deputies (Photo: Pablo Valadares/Chamber of Deputies) SÃO PAULO – After another busy week on the Brazilian stock exchange, investors will now have a little “relief” with the calendar of indicators, while the political side of the news promises to keep the bustle in business. One of the main themes that has guided the market and that will follow on the radar in the coming days is the reform of the Income Tax, whose debate has generated apprehension among investors with the lack of agreements and with the proposed changes .Last week, the Chamber of Deputies decided to postpone the vote on the reform to this Tuesday (17). Among the reasons for the postponement, lawmakers considered that it is necessary to debate the bill to prevent states and municipalities from being harmed by loss of revenue. Another important discussion in Congress is the electoral reform, which last week had approved the so-called “district” and the return of party coalitions in proportional elections (for federal and state deputies and councilors). The second round vote and the highlights of the PEC are scheduled for this week. Still in the political field, the discussion of the PEC dos Precatórios may impact the market this week, in addition to the adjustment of the Bolsa Família. It is also important to follow the debates at Covid’s CPI, which has been quite agitated in recent weeks.

Corporate calendar and indicators

The corporate agenda, on the other hand, gives investors a “slack” with the end of the second-quarter balance sheet season. This Monday (16) the last 11 results are expected, with emphasis on IRB Brasil (IRBR3), Méliuz (CASH3), Gafisa (GFSA3) and Yduqs (YDUQ3). Among the indicators, the week is also a little quieter. , and in Brazil, attention is focused on inflation numbers such as the General Price Index – 10 (IGP-10), released on Tuesday (17). in China, with emphasis on the Industrial Production of July, whose analysts consulted by Refinitiv expect an increase of 7.8% in the annual comparison, against 8.3% presented in the previous month. In addition, the Chinese retail sales data will be presented , which should advance 11.5% against the same period in 2020, according to economists consulted by Refinitiv. In June, the country’s retail grew 12.1%. The same two indicators will be released in the United States on Tuesday, with analysts projecting that retail will retreat 0.2% in July in the monthly comparison (against an increase of 0.6% in June), while industrial production grew 0.5%, slightly better than the 0.4% rise in the previous month. [na China e EUA] they should continue showing advances in economic activity in the third quarter, although with signs of accommodation, especially in the case of the Chinese economy”, assess Bradesco’s analysts.

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