After following another rise in the Selic rate, to the highest level in five years, investors will look carefully at the minutes of the meeting in which the decision was taken. The minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank (Copom) will be released on Tuesday (9), before the opening of the Exchange.
“For now, we expect the committee to leave the rate unchanged at the September meeting, ending the cycle up at 13.75% per year,” wrote Mario Mesquita, chief economist at Itaú. In the statement accompanying the latest decision, however, the Copom left the door open for a residual increase of 25 basis points, and extended the horizon of inflation convergence to 2024.
“It was the right decision, taking into account the magnitude of the shocks that hit the economy,” said Mesquita.
Also on Tuesday will be released the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for the month of July. Itaú expects a deflation of 0.61%, taking the annual rate to 10.1% (from 11.9% in June).
“The reading should show deflation of electricity and fuel, with the tax reduction impacting the result by more than 120 basis points. On the other hand, food at home is still under pressure (especially milk). Inflation of underlying services, such as food away from home and rent, should remain at high levels, while inflation of goods should continue to show a deceleration at the margin”, said the economist at Itaú.
“At the same time, the core measures should continue to be pressured, especially by the inflation of services”, says an analysis by Bradesco.
In the agenda of indicators of the Brazilian economy, retail sales, referring to June, are released on Wednesday (10). Itaú forecasts a 1.5% retraction in the core index compared to May. For the broad index, which includes vehicles and construction material, we expect a 1.3% decline at the margin.
On Thursday (11) it is the turn of the service sector number. “We expect a monthly growth of 0.5%, with the home services component growing 1% at the margin”, says the economist at Itaú.
Highlights of the international agenda
Activity and inflation data are also featured in the United States, China and Europe. On Wednesday, there’s the US consumer price index (CPI). “The index should present an accommodation, with a drop in fuel prices”, says a brief analysis by Bradesco. In the average of the projections of the Refinitiv consensus, the CPI to register an advance of 0.2% in July, in comparison with June.
On Thursday it is the turn of the producer price index (PPI) and the average of market projections points to a monthly increase of 0.3% in July compared to the previous month. In both cases, analysts are predicting a slowdown for the indices.
In Asia, the price indices for China and Japan are released on Tuesday (9) evening. In Europe, the data are concentrated in the final stretch of the week, with UK GDP and eurozone industrial production forecast for Friday (12).
Swing season comes to a head
The week’s corporate results agenda is turbocharged – there are dozens of balance sheets per day. Banks stand out, with the numbers of Banco do Brasil (BBAS3) and Itaú (ITUB4). It is also this week that the results of Magazine Luiza (MGLU3) and Via (VIIA3) are released.
Check out the calendar for the next few days and the complete schedule of the season here.
Modal Bank (MODL11) – after closingBB Seguridade (BBSE3) – before openingDirecional (DIRR3) – after closingItaú Unibanco (ITUB4) – after closingMitre (MTRE3) – after closingNeogrid (NGRD3) – after closingSão Martinho (SMTO3) – after closingTechnos (TECN3) – after closingBanco Pan (BPAN4) – before openingPortobello (PTBL3) – before opening
ABC Bank (ABCB4) – before openingLog-In (LOGN3) – after closingNutriplant (NUTR3)Alupar (ALUP11) – after closingArmac (ARML3) – after closingAura Minerals (AURA33) – after closingBanestes (BEES3)BTG Pactual (BPAC11) – before openingCBA (CBAV3) – after closingCopel (CPLE6)CSU Cardsystem (CARD3) – after closingCury (CURY3) – after closingCVC (CVCB3) – after closingEternit (ETER3) – after closingGuararapes Riachuelo (GUAR3) – after closingSão Carlos (SCAR3) – after closingTaurus ( TASA4)Terra Santa (LAND3) – after closingValid (VLID3) – after closingXP (XPBR31) – after closingViveo (VVEO3) – after closing
3R Petroleum (RRRP3) – after closingAgribrasil (GRAO3)Aliansce Sonae (ALSO3) – after closingAlliar (AALR3) – after closingAllpark Estapar (ALPK3) – after closingAlper (APER3) – after closingBanco do Brasil (BBAS3)Banco Pine (PINE4) – after closing closingBoa Vista (BOAS3) – after closingBraskem (BRKM5)BRF (BRFS3) – after closingC&A (CEAB3) – after closingD1000 (DMVF3) – after closingDimed (PNVL3) – after closingEletromedia (ELMD3) – after closingEquatorial (EQTL3) – after closingFras-le ([ativo=FRAS4]) – after closingSomaGroup (SOMA3) – after closingIochpe-Maxion (MYPK3) – after closingKora (KRSA3) – after closingLavvi (LAVV3) – after closingMahle Metal (LEVE3) – after closingMater Dei (MATD3) – after closingMinerva (BEEF3) – after closingMoura Dubeux (MDNE3) – after closingMRV (MRVE3) – after closingPetroreconcavo (RECV3) – after closingPositivo (POSI3) – after closingProfarma (PFRM3) – after closingRNI (RDNI3) – after closingRossi (RSID3) – after closingSantos Brasil (STBP3) – after closing closeSLC Agrícola (SLCE3) – after closeSmartfit (SMFT3) – before openingSulAmerica (SULA11) – after closingTaesa (TAEE11) – after closingTraders Club (TRAD3) – after closingUnifique (FIQE3) – after closingVittia (VITT3) – after closingWilson Sons (PORT3) – after closingAllied (ALLD3)Banrisul (BRSR6) – after closing
Lojas Marisa (AMAR3) – after closingLocaweb (LWSA3) – after closingBR Properties (BRPR3) – after closingLocaliza (RENT3) – after closingQualicorp (QUAL3) – after closingAeris (AERI3) – after closingAmericanas (AMER3) – after closingArezzo (ARZZ3) – after closing closingAuren (AURE3) – after closingBlue (BLUE4) – before openingB3 (B3SA3) – after closingBemobi (BMOB3) – after closingBiomm (BIOM3) – after closingBMG (BMGB4) – after closingBR Partners (BRBI11) – after closingBradespar (BRAP4) – before openingBrazil Brokers (BBRK3) – after closingBRMalls (BRML3) – after closingBurger King (BKBR3) – after closingCCR (CCRO3) – after closingCogna (COGN3) – after closingCPLF Energia (CPFE3) – after closingCyrela (CYRE3) – after closingDexxos Par (DEXP3) – before openingEnauta (ENAT3) – after closingEnergisa (ENGI11) – after closingEneva (ENEV3) – after closingEnjoei (ENJU3) – after closingEzTec (EZTC3) – after closingFerbasa (FESA4) – after closingG PS (GGPS3) – after closing Grupo Mateus ([ativo=GMTA3]) – after closingHapvida (HAPV3) – after closingHelbor ([ativo=HBOR3}) – após fechamentoHermes Pardini ([ativo=PARD3]) – after closingHidrovias do Brasil (HBSA3) – after closingIMC (MEAL3) – after closingInfracommerce (IFCM3) – after closingJalles Machado (JALL3) – after closingJBS (JBSS3) – after closingJHSF (JHSF3) – after closingLe Lis Blanc / Restoque (LLIS3) – after closingLight (LIGT3) – after closingMagazine Luiza (MGLU3) – after closingMarfrig (MRFG3) – after closingMultilaser (MLAS3) – after closingNatura (NTCO3) – after closingOceanpact (OPCT3) – after closingOi (OIBR3) – after closingOuro Fino (OFSA3) – after closingPetz (PETZ3) – after closingPlano & Plano (PLPL3) – after closingPriner (PRNR3) – after closingRaízen (ROOT4) – after closingRandon (RAPT3) – after closingNet D’Or (RDOR3) – after closingRoad (RAIL3) – after closingSabesp (SBSP3)Sequoia (SEQL3) – after closingSinqia (SQIA3) – after closingSprings (SGPS3) – after closingSYN (SYNE3) – after closingTecnisa (TCSA3) – after closingTime For Fun (SHOW3) – after closingTrack & Field (TFCO4) – after closingThree attempts (TTEN3) – after closingTrisul (TRIS3) – after closingTriumph (TPIS3) – after closingUnicasa (UCAS3) – after closingUnipar (UNIP6) – after closingVia (VIIA3) – after closingVivara (VIVA3) – after closingViver (VIVR3) – after closeWestwing (WEST3) – after closeWiz (WIZS3) – after close
Paranapanema (PMAM3) – after closingBrisanet (BRIT3) – after closingCemig (CMIG4) – after closingCinesystem ([ativo=CNSY3])Cosan (CSAN3) – after closingEletrobras (ELET6) – after closingEucatex (EUCA3)General Shopping (GSHP3)Grazziotin (CGRA3) – after closingIguá ([ativo=IGSN3]) – after closingLupatech (LUPA3) – after closingM Dias Branco (MDIA3) – after closingMobly (MBLY3) – after closingRenova (RNEW3)Saraiva (SLED3)SER Educacional (SEER3)Flex ([ativo=FLEX3]) – after closing
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